Cloudy Today – Aurora Photos – The Michigan Weather Center

As promised, here are the first aurora photos from our community from Nathan and Barry. Thank you very much for these beautiful images. Anyone who wants to post Aurora photos can email them to me. Please note that these are the property of their respective owners. Due to the image size I chose what I thought was best. Click on the image to see them in their full glory.

Nathan statue

NathanImage 2


Barry photo

Barry photo


Today we will see mostly cloudy skies with a chance of light scattered rain showers and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Yesterday we reached 83° after a morning low of 59° with a trace of rain.

NWS forecast

Tuesday

A chance of showers before 2 p.m., then a chance of showers and thunder between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., and a chance of showers after 5 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a high near 69. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph. The chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11 p.m., then a slight chance of showers between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. East northeast wind 6 to 13 mph. The chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph.

Wednesday night

Mostly clear, with a low around 46. East northeast wind 6 to 10 mph.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Thursday evening

Showers are likely, especially after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. There is a 60% chance of precipitation.

Friday

Showers are likely, especially before 8am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 73.

Friday night

Chance of rain and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Saturday

Chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Saturday night

Chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Sunday

Chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Sunday night

Chance of rain and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Monday

Chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.


Weather history

1886: A tornado injured one person and damaged several homes north of Lansing. The injury occurred when a conductor was blown from a train.

2004: A tornado struck the southeast side of Maple Rapids, destroying one silo and damaging two others. A shed was also damaged. A pair of two-by-fours were driven into the side of a pole barn. Shingles were damaged and ripped off two homes.

On May 14, 1987, an F1 tornado hit Oakland County at 5:10 p.m.

1886: The deadliest tornado in Minnesota history devastated parts of St. Cloud and Sauk Rapids, killing 72 and injuring 213. 11 members of a wedding party were killed, including the bride and groom. The bottom of the Mississippi River was seen during the tornado’s crossing. Click HERE for more information from the StarTribune.

1912: During her maiden voyage, the RMS Titanic struck an iceberg just before midnight. The ‘unsinkable ship’ sank two hours and forty minutes later in the icy waters of the Atlantic Ocean near Newfoundland, Canada. Tragically, 1,517 passengers, including crew, were lost. A nearby ship, the Carpathia, rushed to the Titanic and saved 706 people.

1922: The Mississippi River reached a record high of 21 feet in New Orleans, Louisiana, and the river was still rising, with the crest still a week away. Understandably, the city of New Orleans was nervous when reports of levee failures upstream reached the city. A crevasse beneath New Orleans would relieve pressure on the city’s stressed levees on the 27th, saving the city from disaster.

1935: Black Sunday refers to a particularly severe dust storm that occurred on April 14, 1935, as part of the Dust Bowl. During the afternoon, residents of the Plains States were forced to take cover as a dust storm, or “black blizzard,” swept through the region. The storm first hit the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma and moved south for the rest of the day. It hit Beaver around 4 p.m., Boise City around 5:15 p.m., and Amarillo, Texas, at 7:20 p.m. Conditions were heaviest in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, but the storm’s effects were felt in other surrounding areas.

1999: In Sydney, Australia, a hailstorm causes $1.6 billion in damage, making it the costliest hailstorm to hit a populated city in the country. The hail damaged approximately 22,000 homes and more than 60,000 vehicles. Aircraft damage at Sydney Airport was also extensive.


Forecast discussion

- Scattered showers/isolated thunder today, then dry

Radar continues to show very light rain showers/drizzle over the
the northern cwa north of the frontal boundary that stretches
east/west along I-96. These showers are closer to the h8 front. On
the surface, temperatures north of the front are in the mid 50s
with dewpoints in the 40s, compared to lower 60s/mid 50s south of
the front.

GFS/Nam3km show a weak wave on the front this morning that moves
south during the early afternoon. This should help to drag the
frontal boundary through the cwa during the afternoon. Instability
is pretty meager today, highest along the southern row of the cwa
where MUCAPE around 200 j/kg were noted in the models. An isolated
thunderstorm isn`t out of the question today, but most of the
precipitation will be just showers.

Aloft, a trough is moving across the Ohio Valley and once it moves
to the east late afternoon/early evening, we`ll see rain chances
end. High pressure will nose into the region from Ontario tonight
and help to clear out the sky and set the stage for sunshine
Wednesday.

Highs will range from the mid 60s to around 70 today and in the
70s Wednesday.

- Showers with a Few Storms Thursday Night into Friday

A 500 mb shortwave trough will move into the Great Lakes late
Thursday into Friday, but will be weakening as it does. LLJ
orientation and strength is more impressive on the 00z GFS and GEM
compared to the ECMWF, and not surprisingly there is greater
coverage of showers from both of those models. Given the weakening
trough in the upper levels, there is very little surface reflection
or change in pressure/temps/dew point as this feature moves through,
other than a slight dip in MSLP and a veering of winds from easterly
to southerly. Some modest instability is present, mainly elevated,
so a few thunderstorms may occur. Total rainfall amounts look
varied, but generally 0.25"-0.50" is forecast. The 00z GFS is likely
overamplifying the base of the trough Friday into Saturday and
creating a surface wave riding along the front. This is not
supported by the ECMWF and GEM, nor the GEFS mean 500 mb heights. As
such, the prolonging of showers on the GFS well into Saturday is not
favored at this time. Drying conditions are more likely to occur
than rain on Saturday.

- Occasional Storminess Possible Sunday into Early Next Week

Less than desirable model consensus exists regarding the synoptic
pattern beginning Sunday, and poor agreement is in place not only
between different model systems but even model run consistency
within an individual system (ie. ECMWF). The GEFS mean 500 mb
heights and wind speeds show upper ridging working in Sunday into
Monday with increasing mid level jet speeds closer to next Tuesday,
and 24 hr QPF (50th percentile) favors mainly dry conditions Sunday
into Monday. The ECE 50th percentile QPF supports some rain over the
region Sunday into Monday. This far out, low POPs seem the best way
to go.

There are hints that low and mid level jet cores could be
strengthening over the central U.S. early next week, helping draw up
low level moisture flow into the Upper Midwest and potentially the
Great Lakes as well. The difficulty is anticipating which days have
a greater risk for showers/storms than others. The 00z ECMWF would
present probably the worst case scenario with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms beginning late Sunday and lasting into
midweek. Given some of the run to run issues with the ECMWF as of
late, that may be overdone. Still, early next week will be an
interesting period to watch if stronger synoptic support for storms
materializes.