MLB Home Run Prop Betting and Picks: Tuesday (5/14)

The MLB is rolling out a 16-game slate tonight, which means we have plenty of different ways to get in on the action. I went through the pitching matchups and narrowed it down to four home run prop bets that I think are great for today’s action.

Here are four players ready to touch them all tonight.

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MLB Home Run Prop Bets and Picks

(Also courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Gunnar Henderson (+450) & Ryan O’Hearn (+650)

The Blue Jays posted a 3-2 series victory last night, handing the Orioles their second straight loss. Toronto will turn to Chris Bassitt if they want to make it two wins in a row, while Baltimore will look to get back in the win column with Kyle Bradish. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 PM ET from Camden Yards in Baltimore.

The 35-year-old Bassitt hasn’t been very sharp this season, going 3-5 with an ERA of 5.06 (73rd) and 1.55 WHIP (78th). The right-hander has a HR/9 rate of 1.27 in 2024, which is right in line with his 1.26 mark from last season. His HR/FB rate is 14.0% this season, which is his highest since 2018 (14.7%).

Bassitt is tasked with navigating a Baltimore lineup that has put up a league-high 62 home runs this season. Gunnar Henderson owns twelve of those big flies, which is good enough for second in the Majors. Meanwhile, despite being a platoon player with just 93 plate appearances, Ryan O’Hearn has already reached five home runs this year. His left-handed bat should be in the lineup tonight against the right-handed Bassitt.

Ultimately, it’s all about the head-to-head stats, with Henderson being 3-6 (.500) against Bassitt with a pair of nukes, while O’Hearn is 4-7 (.571) with a homer. . Both sluggers are ready to go deep tonight.

Julio Rodriguez (+380)

The Mariners’ 3-2 win last night provided some cushion in the division, where they are now 1.5 games above the Rangers for the AL West lead. Seattle is going for its third straight win tonight, and they’ll turn to Logan Gilbert to get them there. Kansas City selects Michael Wacha in this American League showdown set for 9:40 PM ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

Wacha is struggling out of the gate in 2024 and enters tonight’s game at 2-4 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. In particular, things haven’t gone well over his last three outings, where the right-hander has allowed 14 runs (13 earned) in just 15.1 innings of work (7.63 ERA). Wacha has done a relatively good job keeping the ball in the court (0.82 HR/9), but I still think he’s a great candidate to fade tonight.

I’m taking Julio Rodriguez to go deep in this match. The outfielder has only two home runs to his name this year, but one of them came on Sunday against Athletics. He’s 3-7 (.429) with a home run and a double in his last two games, so he could be turning a corner after this pedestrian start. Rodriguez is 2-8 (.250) against Wacha as a round-tripper, and he’s part of a Seattle lineup that’s slashing .317/.379/.517 against the veteran right-hander. Let’s throw a kite at Rodriguez to pick up his third bomb of the year.

Freddie Freeman (+700)

Tonight’s MLB nightcap comes west as the Giants host the Dodgers for Game 2 of the series. Los Angeles won last night’s game 6-4, and they will send Gavin Stone to the bump as they go for their second straight win. San Francisco counters with Keaton Winn in this divisional clash taking place at 9:45 PM ET from Oracle Park in San Francisco.

Winn will be tasked with trying to slow down a Dodgers roster that is second in the league in home runs, of which they have launched 58 in 43 games (1.35 HR/G). The right-hander has been far from dominant this season, going 3-5 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He is also posting a modest 0.94 HR/9 this season, which is slightly lower than his 2023 mark of 1.28.

However, Freddie Freeman has owned Winn over a small sample size of five at-bats, going 4-5 (.800) against him with a home run and a double. That’s an OPS of 2,400! Freeman’s crushing right-handed pitching this year, hitting .341/.445/.582 against RHP. All four of his big flies this season came against RHP. Overall, his .862 OPS is 28th in the MLB. Freeman doesn’t swing for the fences as much these days, but with a +700 payout, I think it’s worth playing him for a home run.